RELEVANSI BALANCE OF THREAT DALAM MENGKAJI TRANSFORMASI KAPABILITAS PERTAHANAN JEPANG TAHUN 2023
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Artikel ini berargumen bahwa perspektif Jepang terhadap ancaman global dan regional, mempengaruhi orientasi kebijakan pertahanannya. Merujuk pada Buku Putih Pertahanan tahun 2023, Jepang telah memulai transformasi dan peningkatan kapabilitas pertahanan terbesar dalam sejarahnya semenjak Perang Dunia Kedua. Meski memiliki komitmen konstitusional pasifisme dan non-militerisme, serta masih terjebak dalam stagnasi ekonomi kepanjangan, ancaman yang dipersepsikan nyatanya cukup untuk memengaruhi kalkulasi strategisnya secara radikal. Dengan mengatasnamakan pertahanan diri, Tokyo rela untuk melepas secara gradual identitas tradisionalnya agar dapat lebih efektif menjawab secara mandiri ancaman-ancaman yang berasal dari negara revisionis di lingkungannya. Menggunakan teori Balance of Threat, dan desain riset kualitatif berlogika deduktif, artikel ini melihat bahwa keputusan transformasi pertahanan yang dilakukan Jepang merupakan suatu bentuk jawaban atas peningkatan persepsi ancaman dari negara tersebut, yang disebabkan oleh negara-negara agresif dan ambisius di lingkungannya seperti Korea Utara, Rusia, dan juga Cina. Tingginya persepsi ancaman tersebut dibuktikan dengan mengoperasionalisasikan empat variabel dari teori, yakni; agregat kekuatan, kedekatan geografis, kapabilitas ofensif, dan intensi ofensif, yang masing-masing memperlihatkan tren yang merugikan Tokyo. Hal ini kemudian menjadi justifikasi yang memaksa Jepang untuk merespon kondisi ini secara mandiri dengan melakukan transformasi dan peningkatan kapabilitas pertahanannya di tahun 2023, guna menjawab tantangan geopolitik keamanan yang semakin mendesak.
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.24198/aliansi.v5i1.70357
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