ANALISIS FAKTOR EKONOMI VOLUME EKSPOR KAKAO MENTAH INDONESIA

Abstrak

ABSTRAK
Kakao mentah di Indonesia termasuk dalam komoditas unggulan yang memberikan kontribusi dalam
upaya peningkatan devisa Indonesia melalui. Tulisan ini bertujuan untuk menganalisa signifikansi
besaran nilai volume ekspor kakao mentah yang dipengaruhi oleh faktor-faktor ekonomi. Penelitian
ini menggunakan desain kuantitatif dan studi litelatur menggunakan data sekunder, sampel data yang
digunakan bersifat kurun waktu selama 30 tahun hingga tahun 2013. Metodologi penelitian ini
menggunakan model ekonometrika dengan teknik analisis regresi berganda dan metode kuadrat
terkecil atau ordinary least square (OLS). Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa secara partial
Variabel Jumlah Produksi Kakao Indonesia, Nilai Tukar Rupiah, Harga Domestik Biji Kakao
Indonesia memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan dan pajak ekspor secara partial memiliki pengaruh
yang tidak signifikan terhadap perkembangan volume ekspor biji kakao Indonesia. Sedangkan secara
simultan Variabel Jumlah Produksi Kakao Indonesia, Nilai Tukar Rupiah, Harga Domestik Biji
Kakao Indonesia dan Pajak Eksport memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap perkembangan
volume ekspor biji kakao Indonesia.

Kata kunci : volume ekspor biji kakao Indonesia, harga domestik, pajak ekspor, nilai tukar rupiah

ABSTRACT
Indonesian raw cocoa is one of commodities that has important roles on Indonesian export,
especially for economic growth on GDP. Indonesian cocoa beans included in the priority which has
a very important role in export activities including in Indonesia as one of the primary commodity
which would contribute to an increase in foreign exchange for Indonesia. This paper aims to identify
how big the influence of the total production of Indonesian cocoa beans, exchange rate, cocoa beans
price and the export tax to the amount of Indonesia's exports of cocoa both simultaneously and to
identify which are the most influential factor. This study design is a quantitative research. Data were
gained through desk study with time series data of 30 years. This research used econometrics to
reflect the outcome of the discussions to be expressed in numbers by using multiple regression
analysis and ordinary least square (OLS). The results show that the simultaneous variable the
production of Indonesian cocoa, Exchange Rate, Domestic Prices of Indonesian cocoa beans and
Export Tax has a significant influence on the development of Indonesian cocoa beans exports
volume. A partial variable the production of Indonesian cocoa, Exchange Rate, Domestic Prices of
Indonesian cocoa beans has a significant influence and the partial export tax has no significant
effect on the development of Indonesian cocoa exports volume.

Keywords: Indonesian cocoa beans volume exports, domestic prices, export taxes