VOLATILITAS DAN STABILITAS EKONOMI DI NATO DAN BRICS: Analisis Ekonometrik Komparatif
Abstrak
Global economic inequality and geopolitical alliance dynamics are important topics in the study of economics and international relations. Countries belonging to NATO and BRICS have different economic characteristics, which affect their stability and growth in the global market. The research analyzes the volatility of economic production in both groups of countries, and identifies the main factors that cause differences in economic stability between NATO and BRICS. The research is limited to analyzing economic data from NATO and BRICS members over the past two decades. Methods include descriptive statistical analysis and econometric models to measure the level of production volatility and the factors affecting it. Data was obtained from various international sources, such as the World Bank and IMF, to ensure the validity and reliability of the findings. The research shows that NATO countries tend to have higher economic stability than BRICS, which is influenced by more coordinated fiscal and monetary policies, as well as more mature economic infrastructure. In contrast, BRICS countries exhibit higher levels of production volatility due to structural factors. The research gap identified in this study is the lack of comparative studies that directly compare economic volatility between NATO and BRICS using an in-depth quantitative approach. The novelty of the research lies in the integration of econometric models in measuring and comparing the economic volatility of the two groups of countries, as well as providing a new perspective on the impact of geopolitical alliances on economic stability. The research conclusion confirms that economic stability is stronger in NATO countries than BRICS, which has implications for future economic policies and development strategies. The findings can serve as a reference for policymakers in designing economic strategies that are more adaptive to global market dynamics and production volatility risks.
Ketidaksetaraan ekonomi global dan dinamika aliansi geopolitik merupakan topik penting dalam studi ekonomi dan hubungan internasional. Negara-negara yang tergabung dalam NATO dan BRICS memiliki karakteristik ekonomi yang berbeda, yang memengaruhi stabilitas dan pertumbuhan mereka di pasar global. Penelitian ini menganalisis volatilitas produksi ekonomi di kedua kelompok negara tersebut, serta mengidentifikasi faktor utama yang menyebabkan perbedaan stabilitas ekonomi antara NATO dan BRICS. Penelitian ini terbatas pada analisis data ekonomi dari anggota NATO dan BRICS selama dua dekade terakhir. Metode yang digunakan meliputi analisis statistik deskriptif dan model ekonometrik untuk mengukur tingkat volatilitas produksi dan faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhinya. Data diperoleh dari berbagai sumber internasional, seperti Bank Dunia dan IMF, untuk memastikan validitas dan keandalan temuan. Penelitian menunjukkan bahwa negara-negara NATO cenderung memiliki stabilitas ekonomi yang lebih tinggi daripada BRICS, yang dipengaruhi oleh kebijakan fiskal dan moneter yang lebih terkoordinasi, serta infrastruktur ekonomi yang lebih matang. Di sisi lain, negara-negara BRICS menunjukkan tingkat volatilitas produksi yang lebih tinggi akibat faktor struktural. Kesenjangan penelitian yang diidentifikasi dalam studi ini adalah kurangnya studi perbandingan yang secara langsung membandingkan volatilitas ekonomi antara NATO dan BRICS menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif yang mendalam. Keunikan penelitian ini terletak pada integrasi model ekonometrik dalam mengukur dan membandingkan volatilitas ekonomi kedua kelompok negara, serta memberikan perspektif baru tentang dampak aliansi geopolitik terhadap stabilitas ekonomi. Kesimpulan penelitian menegaskan bahwa stabilitas ekonomi lebih kuat di negara-negara NATO dibandingkan BRICS, yang memiliki implikasi bagi kebijakan ekonomi dan strategi pengembangan di masa depan. Temuan ini dapat menjadi acuan bagi pembuat kebijakan dalam merancang strategi ekonomi yang lebih adaptif terhadap dinamika pasar global dan risiko volatilitas produksi.
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.24198/aliansi.v4i3.64007
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Pusat Studi Politik dan Demokrasi, Fakultas Ilmu Sosial dan Ilmu Politik, Universitas Padjadjaran.
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