Synoptic and Mesoscale Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Event in Cilacap Meteorological Station, Indonesia on December 7, 2018

Suwignyo Prasetyo, Wahyu Kurniawan, Inlim Ravijai Rumahorbo

Abstract


The highest rainfall for the last five years (2016-2020) was recorded at 199.5 mm in twenty-four hours at the Cilacap Meteorological Station. This study examines the dynamics of the atmosphere with a focus on the synoptic scale and the mesoscale analysis. This is done because high rainfall with a long duration is usually caused by clouds that grow due to wider-scale atmospheric circulation rather than only being influenced by local-scale convection. The outbreaks of cold air masses from the Asian highlands that propagates across the equator is the main cause on the synoptic scale. In addition, a fairly strong wind speed from the south supports convergence and triggers deep convective clouds by increasing the advection of warm air in the southern part of Java Island, especially in this case the Cilacap area. Meso-scale analysis was carried out using numerical simulations to estimate rainfall spatially and using Himawari-8 satellite imagery. Numerical simulations carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with adjustments to certain parameterization schemes have not been able to estimate rainfall well enough with underestimated values compared to the observation data. Based on Himawari-8 satellite imagery, it is clearly observed that the cloud formed is a mesoscale convective cloud system with a life span of more than six hours. The cloud growth is quite massive, which is indicated by the cloud top temperature value is lower than -80℃ in the mature phase. Thus, the resulting rainfall includes extreme rain, resulting in flooding in parts of Cilacap.


References


C. S. Ramage, “Role of a Tropical ‘Maritime Continent’ in the Atmospheric Circulation,” Mon. Weather Rev., vol. 96, no. 6, pp. 365–370, 1968, doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1968)096%3C0365:ROATMC%3E2.0.CO;2.

E. Mulyana, “Hubungan Antara ENSO dengan Variasi Curah Hujan di Indonesia,” J. Sains Teknol. Modif. Cuaca, vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 1–4, 2002.

J. Mcbride, M. Haylock, and N. Nicholls, “Relationships between the Maritime Continent Heat Source and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation Phenomenon,” J. Clim., vol. 16, Sep. 2003, doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016 <2905:RBTMCH>2.0.CO;2.

C.-P. Chang, Z. Wang, J. Ju, and T. Li, “On the Relationship between Western Maritime Continent Monsoon Rainfall and ENSO during Northern Winter,” J. Clim., vol. 17, pp. 665–672, Feb. 2004, doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<0665:OTRBWM>2.0.CO;2.

Z. X. Xu, K. Takeuchi, and H. Ishidaira, “Correlation between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and precipitation in South-east Asia and the Pacific region,” Hydrol. Process., vol. 18, no. 1, pp. 107–123, Jan. 2004, doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.1315.

E. Aldrian, L. Dümenil Gates, and F. H. Widodo, “Seasonal variability of Indonesian rainfall in ECHAM4 simulations and in the reanalyses: The role of ENSO,” Theor. Appl. Climatol., vol. 87, no. 1, pp. 41–59, 2007, doi: 10.1007/s00704-006-0218-8.

J. H. Qian, A. W. Robertson, and V. Moron, “Interactions among ENSO, the Monsoon, and Diurnal Cycle in Rainfall Variability over Java, Indonesia,” J. Atmos. Sci., vol. 67, no. 11, pp. 3509–3524, 2010, doi: 10.1175/2010JAS3348.1.

S. Hameed, B. N. Goswami, P. Vinayachandran, and T. Yamagata, “A dipole mode in the Tropical Indian Ocean,” Nature, vol. 401, pp. 360–363, Oct. 1999, doi: 10.1038/43854.

R. Madden and P. Julian, “Description of Global-Scale Circulation Cells in the Tropics with a 40–50 Day Period,” J. Atmos. Sci., vol. 29, no. 9, pp. 1109–1123, 1386.

A. Zakir, W. Sulistya, and M. Khotimah, Perspektif Operasional Cuaca Tropis. Jakarta: BMKG, 2010.

M. Hattori, S. Mori, and J. Matsumoto, “The Cross-Equatorial Northerly Surge over the Maritime Continent and Its Relationship to Precipitation Patterns,” J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan. Ser. II, vol. 89A, pp. 27–47, 2011, doi: 10.2151/jmsj.2011-A02.

S. Prasetyo, U. Hidayat, Y. D. Haryanto, and N. F. Riama, “Variasi dan Trend Suhu Udara Permukaan di Pulau Jawa,” J. Geogr. Media Media Inf. Pengemb. dan Profesi Kegeografian, vol. 18, no. 1, pp. 60–68, 2021, doi: 10.15294/jg.v18i1.27622.

M. J. Manton et al., “Trends in extreme daily rainfall and temperature in Southeast Asia and the South Pacific: 1961–1998,” Int. J. Climatol., vol. 21, no. 3, pp. 269–284, Mar. 2001, doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.610.

S. Siswanto, G. J. van Oldenborgh, G. van der Schrier, R. Jilderda, and B. van den Hurk, “Temperature, extreme precipitation, and diurnal rainfall changes in the urbanized Jakarta city during the past 130 years,” Int. J. Climatol., vol. 36, no. 9, pp. 3207–3225, 2016, doi: 10.1002/joc.4548.

E. Aldrian, “Decreasing trends in annual rainfalls over Indonesia: A threat for the national water resource?,” J. Meteorol. dan Geofi sika, vol. 7, pp. 40–49, Apr. 2007.

H. Hersbach et al., “The ERA5 global reanalysis,” Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., vol. 146, no. 730, pp. 1999–2049, Jul. 2020, doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803.

K. Bessho et al., “An introduction to Himawari-8/9 — Japan’s new-generation geostationary meteorological satellites,” J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan, vol. 94, no. 2, pp. 151–183, 2016, doi: 10.2151/jmsj.2016-009.

NCEP, “NCEP FNL Operational Model Global Tropospheric Analyses, continuing from July 1999.” Research Data Archive at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Computational and Information Systems Laboratory, Boulder, CO, 2000, doi: 10.5065/D6M043C6.

S. U. Wicaksono and A. Kurniadi “Parameterizing the Scheme of Convective Microphysics and Planetary Boundary Layer Using WRF-ARW for a Very Heavy Rain Event in Cilacap Meteorological Station (A case study on October 8th, 2016),” Indonesian State College of Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics, 2017.

S. Febrianto and K. Muzaki, “Banjir di 13 Desa 4 Kecamatan di Cilacap Berangsur Surut,” 2018. [Online]. Available: https://www.tribunnews.com/ regional/2018/12/07/banjir-di-13-desa-4-kecamatan-di-cilacap-berangsur-surut.

D. E. Nuryanto, H. Pawitan, R. Hidayat, and E. Aldrian, “Characteristics of two mesoscale convective systems ( MCSs ) over the Greater Jakarta : case of heavy rainfall period 15 – 18 January 2013,” Geosci. Lett., pp. 1–15, 2019, doi: 10.1186/s40562-019-0131-5.

P. Wu et al., “The impact of trans-equatorial monsoon flow on the formation of repeated torrential rains over java Island,” Sci. Online Lett. Atmos., vol. 3, no. February, pp. 93–96, 2007, doi: 10.2151/sola.2007-024.

S. Prasetyo, M. I. S. Maulana, and A. Zakir, “Tinjauan Meteorologis Pada Fenomena Hujan Lebat Penyebab Banjir (Studi Kasus: Cilacap, 16-17 November 2020 Dan Kendal, 19 November 2020),” J. Mater. dan Energi Indones., vol. 10, no. 9, pp. 37–48, 2020, [Online]. Available: http://jurnal.unpad.ac.id/jmei/article/view/31575.




DOI: https://doi.org/10.24198/jiif.v5i2.31258

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Journal Indexed By:
Visit Statistics: